The Winner: Biden or Trump?

In front of the presidential election in November, there are a lot of public opinion polls indicating presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump. Polls can indicate how people feel about a certain candidate at a particular time, they do not always predict the election outcome.

Below you will find some very key concepts to consider for the 2020 presidential election.

  1. Did the incumbent's party gained house seats between midterm elections - No
  2. Is there a primary contest for the incumbent's party - Yes
  3. Is the incumbent running for reelection - Yes
  4. There is no third-party challenger - Yes
  5. Is the short-term economy strong - No
  6. The long-term economic growth during the incumbent's term has been as good as the past two terms - No
  7. The incumbent has made major changes in national policy - Yes
  8.  There was no social unrest during the incumbent's term - No
  9. The incumbent is untainted by scandal - No
  10. The incumbent has no major foreign or military failures abroad - Yes
  11. The incumbent has a major foreign or military success abroad - No
  12. The incumbent is charismatic - No
  13. The challenger is not charismatic - Yes

Look and analyze the answer to each concept. This results reveals to me that in just a few months, Donald Trump and the Republicans have moved from a position of what appeared to be an out-right win to a position of losing the election. What do you, an intelligent voter, think about the November election? Do election polls really tell the correct story of how an election will unfold?

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