Outlier Poll Hints at Tightening Alabama Governor’s Race

Most polls point to the Alabama governor's race this year as not competitive. But there is one poll that seems to be an outlier: the Yes, Every Kid Foundation survey of likely voters.

All other polling sees Republican Tommy Tuberville with a 10-point-or-better lead over Democrat Doug Jones. However, the one taken between July 8 and 11 by the foundation hints at a tighter race. The 49% polled for Tuberville and 41% for Jones have slightly raised some eyebrows.

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Based on "the coach's" easy defeat of Jones in the 2020 U.S. Senate race, most every political pundit long ago assumed the senator's election as governor was inevitable. Early polls showed him with wide margins over Jones. The Montgomery-based Cygnal Poll, for instance, taken in November of last year, revealed Tuberville with a 19-point lead. Other polls have been near that margin.

While not a poll itself, the 2026 Alabama Governor Forecast does use polling data. Conducted by the election-forecasting firm PollsMax, it gives Tuberville a 98% chance of winning in November.

So what could account for the significant variance of the Yes, Every Kid Foundation poll from all the others? One answer is single-issue politics. The Yes poll is conducted by an organization that promotes education and Alabama's school choice. The top concern among Alabama voters is education.

All of the above said, the highly respected Cook Political Report states this about Doug Jones in the 2026 Alabama governor's race on its website: "...quite possibly the only Alabama Democrat with a prayer of competing statewide."