Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil’s Spring Prediction

History Moment: Punxsutawney Phil has been predicting the arrival of Spring since 1887.

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The Groundhog Day was an evolution of Europe’s Candlemas Day. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, when the “traditional belief was introduced to Germany that an animal was introduced into the lore, hence another evolution of February 2nd.” Then, the holiday arrived in Punxsutawney by the way of German immigrants.

How Accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Punxsutawney Phil's prediction accuracy is correct about 30% of the time over the past decade.

His 2023 prediction of a long winter was about 50/50, where “the contiguous United States saw above average temperatures in February and slightly below average temperatures in March of last year,” said NOAA.

2024 Prediction from America’s Favorite Groundhog

According to The Weather Channel, “the world's most famous groundhog didn't see his shadow this morning in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.” Therefore, according to Groundhog Day folklore, Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring.