Another Trio in the Tropics and What That Means for Alabama & Gulf Coast

As hurricane season rolls on through November 30, activity has picked up in the Atlantic. The Townsquare Media Weather Center is monitoring another trio of developing weather systems.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that “La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity.” In addition, this season, we would see an “85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.”

We will see how those stats shake out with a few months left in hurricane season.

Outlook on the Trio in the Tropics

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91)

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

We are closely monitoring a developing weather system, which is expected to evolve into a tropical depression in the coming days. The system is projected to track northwestward and then veer northward, potentially impacting areas along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas by midweek.

According to the National Hurricane Center, “Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for additional development.”

“The most widespread rain for Mississippi, Alabama, and the Central Gulf Coast will likely come between Wednesday night and Friday,” said James Spann, ABC 33/40, and Townsquare Media Tuscaloosa Chief Meteorologist.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92)

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

“Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system,” said the National Hurricane Center.

This weather system over the central tropical Atlantic could develop into a tropical depression by Monday. As the week progresses, the system is expected to drift westward at approximately 10 mph.

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Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure positioned several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is generating a widespread area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The system is anticipated to remain largely stationary over the next few days. On Monday, it could interact with a tropical wave projected to emerge from the west coast of Africa.

The National Hurricane Center said, “Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.”

Mary K. – Weather Forecaster